Wednesday, May 31, 2006

There's An Election Next Tuesday

And it's a rather important one.

Voters in California's 50th District will choose the successor to disgraced Congressman Duke Cunningham. The race pits Democrat Francine Busby against Republican (and Alexandria, VA resident) Brian Bilbray.

The race will be a close one, but in my estimation, the Democrats can't lose. The California 50th is an overwhelmingly Republican district, where Bush received 56 percent in 2004. The fact that a Democrat is polling at or ahead of a Republican is itself remarkable.

If Busby wins, then the narrative will be how the California 50th is foreshadowing big Democratic gains in November. Beyond that, it gets the Democrats one seat closer to a majority.

The worst case scenario is a Republican win in a Republican held Republican leaning district. No loss for the Dems in the numbers game, and it can be chalked up to nothing more than demographics. Furthermore, the Republican Party will have spent over $5 million to protect their own seat... Money that can't be spent on other competitive races.

As far as worst case scenarios go, I'd say this is a pretty damned good one.

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